UMA and Beyond: Mobile Operators Benefit from Wi-Fi and Cellular Convergence

SUMMARY

Report overview

"UMA and Beyond: Mobile Operators Benefit from Wi-Fi and Cellular Convergence" provides a comprehensive assessment of the UMA (Unlicensed Mobile Access) technology and Wi-Fi and cellular convergence. This report from Senza Fili Consulting presents a clear, concise overview of the technology, and explores the market drivers that will lead to adoption. To help service providers and vendors size the opportunity, it includes a forecast of the market demand and revenue opportunity for UMA services.

Topics covered

• UMA technology overview
• Standardization efforts
• Drivers to adoption in different geographic markets, with forecasts of user demand
• Services for the residential and enterprise market
• The opportunity for mobile operators
• The competitive threat to fixed operators and VoIP (Voice over Internet Protocol) service providers
• The role of handset manufacturers

Extensive forecasts (2006-2010)

• Worldwide demand for Wi-Fi and Cellular Convergence services
• Impact of Wi-Fi and Cellular Convergence on subscriber usage of fixed and cellular lines (including analysis of effect on MoU from home and away from home, on metered and unmetered calls)
• Revenues from Wi-Fi and Cellular Convergence services, including revenues gained by mobile operators (taking into account the effect of cannibalization), and revenues lost by fixed operators

All your key questions answered

• When will UMA handsets will be available and how much will they cost?
• What is the timeline for deployment?
• Will subscribers pay for UMA services? How much is UMA worth to them?
• What is the effect of broadband and Wi-Fi penetration on UMA demand?
• Will users be able to use UMA phones in hotspots? Is this a key adoption driver?
• What is UMA and how it relates to other ongoing standardization efforts, such as 3GPP (The Third Generation Partnership Project) and IEEE 802.21?
• How can UMA guarantee quality of service (QoS)?
• How (and when) will UMA move towards SIP (Session Initiation Protocol) and all-IP networks?

How this report will help you

• Mobile operators - understand the opportunity offered by Wi-Fi and cellular convergence and learn how to take full advantage of it
• Fixed and VoIP service providers - evaluate the competitive threat posed by UMA and develop an alternative Wi-Fi convergence strategy
• Vendors - assess the demand, and establish a timeline, for Wi-Fi and cellular converged handsets and find more about the mobile operators requirements
• Investors, consultants, regulators - get a better understanding of the Wi-Fi cellular convergence ecosystem and a new perspective on the potential of the technology

This report offers a timely, in-depth analysis into one of the hottest emerging areas in the cellular and Wi-Fi industry. It is essential reading for those evaluating UMA and those who want to stay at the forefront of technological innovation in mobile telecommunications.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Executive Summary

1 Unlicensed Mobile Access (UMA): a real push towards Wi-Fi and cellular convergence

• 1.1 A solution well-suited to mobile operators
• 1.2 When and where?
• 1.3 Convergence after UMA
• 1.4 Report roadmap

2 The core of UMA: technology and devices

• 2.1 How does UMA work?
• 2.2 Deployment scenarios: residential users, enterprise, hotspots
• 2.3 UMA handsets
• 2.4 Quality of Service (QoS)
• 2.5 What UMA is not: VoIP and SIP
• 2.6 Alternative solutions

3 The route to standardization

• 3.1 First step: UMA specifications
• 3.2 End point: 3GPP
• 3.3 The role of the Wi-Fi Alliance
• 3.4 The broader convergence view: IEEE 802.21, seamless roaming and WiMAX

4 One technology, different markets and different geographies

• 4.1 Drivers for adoption
  • 4.1.1 Residential market
  • 4.1.2 Enterprise market
• 4.2 Forecast of user demand
  • 4.2.1 North America
  • 4.2.2 Advanced Asian markets
  • 4.2.3 Western Europe
  • 4.2.4 Developing markets

5 Mobile operators: what do they stand to gain and lose?

• 5.1 The opportunity for Wi-Fi and cellular convergence
• 5.2 UMA challenges
• 5.3 Impact of convergence on fixed and mobile traffic
• 5.4 How to charge for UMA calls?
• 5.5 The revenue opportunity

6 The threat to fixed operators and VoIP service providers

• 6.1 Increased impetus for fixed-to-wireless substitution
• 6.2 The fight against mobile operators
• 6.3 A new source of competition for VoIP service providers

7 Handset manufacturers as key enablers of UMA

• 7.1 Finally a market for Wi-Fi handsets
• 7.2 Requirements for Wi-Fi and cellular handsets

8 Conclusions

Annex A: Standardization efforts and industry alliances

• 3GPP
• European Telecommunications Standards Institute (ETSI)
• Fixed-Mobile Convergence Alliance (FMCA)
• SCCAN Forum
• IEEE 802.21
• International Telecommunication Union (ITU)
• UMA
• Wi-Fi Alliance

Annex B: Wi-Fi and cellular convergence solutions

• Bridgeport Networks
• Ericsson
• Kineto Wireless
• LongBoard
• NTT DoCoMo

Annex C: Service providers

• BT
• Cingular
• O2
• Rogers Wireless
• T-Mobile USA

Annex D: References

Annex E: Acronyms

Annex F: Methodology

List of Figures

• Figure 1. Key drivers of Wireless and Cellular Convergence (WCC)
• Figure 2. GSM core network access by UMA-enabled handsets
• Figure 3. UMA and cellular access to the core network
• Figure 4. UMA network architecture: access to the cellular home network
• Figure 5. UMA network architecture: roaming case
• Figure 6. WLAN and cellular handsets
• Figure 7. Addressable market for WCC
• Figure 8. WCC subscribers
• Figure 9. Penetration of WCC among cellular subscribers
• Figure 10. WCC subscribers in North America
• Figure 11. WCC subscribers in Asia and Oceania
• Figure 12. WCC subscribers in Western Europe
• Figure 13. Fixed and mobile MoU in the US
• Figure 14. Mobile and fixed MoU at home and outside the home in 2006
• Figure 15. Mobile and fixed MoU at home and outside the home in 2010
• Figure 16. Usage profiles: Scenario 1 - Flat fee, unlimited usage in 2006
• Figure 17. Usage profiles: Scenario 2 - Fixed fee, limited usage in 2006
• Figure 18. Usage profiles: Scenario 3 - No fee, cellular rates in 2006
• Figure 19. Usage profiles: Scenario 1 - Flat fee, unlimited usage in 2010
• Figure 20. Usage profiles: Scenario 2 - Fixed fee, limited usage in 2010
• Figure 21. Usage profiles: Scenario 3 - No fee, cellular rates in 2010
• Figure 22. Subscriber savings: Scenario 1 - Flat fee, unlimited usage in 2006
• Figure 23. Subscriber savings: Scenario 2 - Fixed fee, limited usage in 2006
• Figure 24. Subscriber savings: Scenario 3 - No fee, cellular rates in 2006
• Figure 25. Subscriber savings: Scenario 1 - Flat fee, unlimited usage in 2010
• Figure 26. Subscriber savings: Scenario 2 - Fixed fee, limited usage in 2010
• Figure 27. Subscriber savings: Scenario 3 - No fee, cellular rates in 2010
• Figure 28. WCC revenues for mobile operators
• Figure 29. Revenues lost by fixed service providers
• Figure 30. Bridgeport Networks NomadicONE solution
• Figure 31. Kineto Wireless FMC solution
• Figure 32. LongBoards OnePhone solution

List of Tables

• Table 1. UMA key features
• Table 2. Drivers of WCC demand
• Table 3. Usage scenarios