Telecom Lasers, Transceivers, And Transponders: Market Review And Forecast -- 2003

SUMMARY

Growth in telecom traffic continues to grow, albeit more slowly, and prices will stabilize enough to provide revenue growth to the telecom laser market beginning in 2003, but there are still far too many suppliers hoping to survive the downturn. This new report reevaluates the market for telecom lasers in light of the current downturn and recovery, the gap between consumption and shipments, and the transition to higher levels of integration (called SERDES transceivers or transponders). This update of our earlier report breaks down the market by network application, and further by data rate, reach, and wavelength, to provide complete forecasts on the entire telecom market, in a user-friendly manner. History and forecasts extend from 2001 through 2006 for unit sales, ASPs, and revenues. The report also classifies suppliers and their products and estimates revenues and market shares for 17 key suppliers.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Cover page lead

Telecom laser inventories were not fully depleted in 2002, but installation of new line cards will lead to industry growth in 2003.

While most long-haul telecom lasers are still overstocked, demand for new channel cards suggests that remaining inventories will be depleted in 2003, leading to an increase in sales. In the meantime, other laser diode products are faring reasonably well despite the industry downturn. Gigabit Ethernet and Fibre Channel transceivers for remote storage, for example, have sold well as customers upgraded their remote storage facilities following the events of 9/11. Nevertheless, total sales in the industry remain spread among too many suppliers.

The complex and dynamic telecom laser market serves as a bellweather for the optical components market as a whole. Strategies Unlimited's new report TELECOM LASERS, TRANSCEIVERS, AND TRANSPONDERS: MARKET REVIEW AND FORECAST-2003 provides the most comprehensive study of the market for transmitter lasers in the telecom market.

Cover page highlights (Bullets in 2 columns)

• Market data and forecasts through 2006, including units and revenues on installed lasers
  • Segmentation by type of network:
    • Long haul DWDM
    • Core metro (WDM and non-WDM)
    • Metro access and CATV
  • Segmentation by data rate
    • 40 Gbps
    • 10 Gbps
    • 1 and 2.5 Gbps
    • Less than 1 Gbps
  • Further segmentation by reach
    • Long reach
    • Intermediate reach
    • Short reach
    • Inter-cabinet and VSR
  • Further segmentation by wavelength
    • WDM vs. non-WDM
    • 1310 vs. 1550-nm
• Supplier revenues and market shares
  • The report estimates revenues and market shares for 17 key suppliers, and categorizes major suppliers of lasers, transceivers, and transponders.
• Comparison of demand, shipments, and inventory
  • The study distinguishes between demand for products (installed units) and the shipments by suppliers.
• Trends in applications, technology, and the overall environment
  • The study reviews key trends and assumptions in applications, prices, and technology, including traffic projections, carrier revenues, capital expenditures, optical networking system spending, and laser subsystem and components.

Cover page highlights (single column text)

The recent downturn in the market for optical communication components raised many new questions. Will the long haul market ever recover to 2000 levels? Will new metro applications, such as transparent switching, 10 Gigabit Ethernet, or Fiber-to-the-Home bring a recovery? What about 40 Gbps? How big an opportunity is China? Can new, integrated modules make up revenues lost to falling prices and slow sales of discrete components?

The laser diode, a key component in optical networking systems, is one of the most complex and dynamic product segments in the industry. It is composed of a myriad of device types and applications, each facing a different set of dynamic market forces. The integration of lasers into modules such as transceivers and transponders adds further complexity to the market.

Telecom Lasers, Transceivers, and Transponders: Market Review and Forecast-2003 is designed to help optical component and equipment vendors understand where the telecom laser market is headed. It includes analysis of inventory levels at all stages of the value chain, as well as of end user demand and manufacturers' shipments. Based on a wide range of in-person interviews, this report provides a comprehensive update of the laser market, organized by units, prices, and revenues.

1. Executive Summary

2. Scope and Methodology

2.1. Scope of report

2.2. Telecom vs. datacom applications

2.3. Lasers and the telecom supply chain

2.4. Methodology for forecasting laser installations

2.5. Methodology for forecasting laser shipments

2.6. New report organization

3. Traffic and Network Systems

3.1. Driving forces

3.2. End-user traffic projections

3.3. Carrier capital expenditure forecast

3.4. Optical networking system forecast

3.5. Terrestrial telecom system vendors

3.5.1. Alcatel

3.5.2. CIENA

3.5.3. Cisco Systems

3.5.4. Fujitsu

3.5.5. Hitachi Telecom

3.5.6. Huawei Technologies

3.5.7. Lightscape Networks (ECI Telecom)

3.5.8. Lucent Technologies

3.5.9. Marconi

3.5.10. NEC

3.5.11. Nortel Networks

3.5.12. Siemens

3.5.13. Sycamore Networks

3.5.14. Tellabs

4. Number of Laser Installations

4.1. Laser installations and types of networks

4.2. Long haul networks

4.2.1. Long haul forecast methodology

4.2.2. General outlook for long haul networks

4.2.3. Assumptions for long haul bandwidth demand

4.2.4. Long haul network laser forecast

4.2.5. Long haul laser forecast by data rate

4.2.6. Long haul laser wavelength and reach

4.2.7. Long haul laser breakout by C band and other bands

4.2.8. Long haul laser device technology

4.3. Core metro networks: TDM

4.3.1. Core metro forecast methodology

4.3.2. The metro bottleneck that isn't

4.3.3. Bandwidth growth and metro networks

4.3.4. Core metro TDM laser forecast by reach

4.3.5. Core metro TDM laser forecast by data rate

4.3.6. Core metro TDM laser forecast by wavelength

4.3.7. Core metro TDM laser trends by device technology

4.4. Core metro networks: WDM

4.4.1. Core metro WDM laser forecast by data rate and type

4.5. Metro access networks

4.5.1. Metro access forecast methodology

4.5.2. General outlook for access networks

4.5.2.1. North America

4.5.2.2. Japan

4.5.2.3. Europe, China, and the rest of the World

4.5.3. Bandwidth growth and access networks

4.5.4. Copper versus fiber terminations

4.5.5. Access network architectures

4.5.6. Assumptions regarding laser units in access networks

4.5.6.1. Digital Loop Carrier and direct-to-business

4.5.6.2. Fiber-to-the-Curb (FTTC)

4.5.6.3. Fiber-to-the-Home (FTTH)

4.5.6.4. Hybrid Fiber-Coax (HFC)

4.5.7. Metro access network laser forecast

4.6. Integrated functional blocks (transponders)

4.6.1. Multiple Source Agreements (MSAs)

4.6.2. Lasers integrated into functional blocks

4.6.3. Forecast of SERDES transceivers (transponders)

4.7. Summary of forecasts of laser installations

5. Laser Prices

5.1. Quantities and laser prices

5.2. Vertical integration and laser prices

5.3. Data rate and laser prices

5.4. Wavelength and laser prices

5.5. Reach and laser prices

5.6. Output power and laser prices

5.7. DWDM, CWDM, and non-WDM laser prices

5.8. Fixed and tunable laser prices

5.9. CATV laser prices

5.10. Package type and laser prices

5.10.1. Small form factors

5.10.2. Transmitters versus transceivers

5.10.3. Pluggable designs

5.10.4. Ethernet versus SONET/SDH designs

5.10.5. Including drive electronics

5.10.6. Including wavelength lockers

5.10.7. Bidirectional modules

5.10.8. Mini-DIL versus coaxial designs

5.11. Device technology and laser prices

5.11.1. VCSELs and Fabry-Perot lasers

5.11.2. DML DFB lasers

5.11.3. ILM lasers

5.11.4. Fixed and tunable CW DFB lasers

5.11.5. Multimode 1310-nm LEDs

5.12. Selected laser subcomponent prices

5.12.1. Laser chip

5.12.2. Detector chip

5.12.3. Wavelength locker

5.12.4. Thermoelectric cooler

5.12.5. Isolator

5.12.6. Lenses

5.12.7. Other components and subcomponents

5.13. Trends in laser prices

6. Value of Laser Installations

6.1. Value and weighted average prices

6.2. Long haul network laser forecast

6.3. Core metro network: TDM laser forecast

6.3.1. Core metro TDM laser forecast by reach

6.3.2. Core metro TDM laser forecast by data rate

6.3.3. Core metro TDM laser forecast by wavelength

6.4. Core metro network: WDM laser forecast

6.5. Metro access network laser forecast

6.6. Integrated functional blocks (transponders)

6.7. Summary of forecasts of laser installations

7. 2001-2002 Suppliers and Shipments

7.1. Shipments versus installations

7.2. Laser inventory

7.3. Laser shipments by supplier

7.4. Laser shipments by region of supplier

7.5. Laser shipments by region of customer

7.6. Summary of suppliers and product offerings

7.7. Profiles of selected suppliers: North America

7.7.1. Agere Systems

7.7.2. Agilent Technologies

7.7.3. Finisar

7.7.4. JDS Uniphase

7.7.5. Luminent (MRV Communications)

7.7.6. Multiplex

7.7.7. OCP

7.7.8. Triquint Semiconductor

7.8. Profiles of selected suppliers: Europe

7.8.1. Alcatel Optronics

7.8.2. Bookham Technology

7.8.3. Infineon Technologies

7.8.4. Modulight

7.8.5. OptoSpeed

7.9. Profiles of selected suppliers: Japan

7.9.1. Anritsu

7.9.2. Fujitsu Quantum Devices

7.9.3. Furukawa Electric

7.9.4. Hitachi Cable

7.9.5. Mitsubishi Electric

7.9.6. NEC

7.9.7. NEL

7.9.8. Oki Electric

7.9.9. OpNext

7.9.10. Sumitomo Electric (Excelight)

7.9.11. Toshiba

7.10. Profiles of selected suppliers: Asia

7.10.1. Samsung

7.10.2. Shenzhen Photon Technology

7.10.3. Wuhan Telecommunication Devices (WTD)