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Emerging Wireless 2006
Product Type: Market Research Report Publication Date: Jan 25, 2006
 
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SUMMARY

Emerging Wireless examines opportunities presented by recent and forthcoming wireless platforms, including next generation IP-based wireless technologies, TD-SCDMA and HSDPA. It also looks the criteria and various definitions of next generation networks (NGN) and fourth generation wireless (4G). Fixed and mobile markets are considered and assessed.

Analysis is provided for 802.16, 802.20, HSDPA and subsequent UMTS releases, UMTS TDD, TD-SCDMA, proprietary broadband wireless technologies and FLASH-OFDM.

Developments in Japan are also monitored and the future role of technologies such as intelligent antennas, OFDM, software defined radio, and mesh networking is assessed. Subscribers, device shipments, and base station deployments are quantified and detailed and a comparative analysis of these technologies is provided.

Questions Addressed

  • What markets will TD-SCDMA find inside and outside of China
  • What timeline will technologies evolve by
  • Which applications must next generation platforms support
  • What criteria will determine success of next generation platforms
  • Is additional fragmentation inevitable in the wireless market
  • Which technology represents the best investment
  • How do new technologies compare
  • Will fixed and mobile systems converge
  • Can 802.16 impact the mobile space
  • Can HSDPA and future 3GPP releases hold off competitors
  • Will mobile technologies replace 802.16 for fixed applications

Quantifies

  • 802.16 infrastructure, client devices, subscribers and revenues for each
  • 802.20 infrastructure, client devices, subscribers and revenues for each
  • HSDPA infrastructure, clients devices, subscribers and revenues
  • UMTS TDD infrastructure, client devices, subscribers and revenues for each
  • Proprietary systems, infrastructure, client devices, subs and revenues for each
  • WCDMA subscribers, Infrastructure, device shipments and revenues for each
  • TD-SCDMA infrastructure, client devices, subscribers and revenues for each

Topics

  • Technologies
  • Applications
  • Regions
  • Vendors

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Section One Executive Summary

  • 1.1 Conclusions
  • 1.2 Observations
    • 1.2.1 Upgrade drivers vary
    • 1.2.2 Triple and quadruple plays
    • 1.2.3 One leg of the stool
    • 1.2.4 All IP network integration
    • 1.2.5 VoIP
    • 1.2.6 Choices and more Choices
  • 1.3 Assessment by Technology
    • 1.3.1 802.16/WiMAX
    • 1.3.2 802.20
    • 1.3.3 FLASH-OFDM
    • 1.3.4 UMTS TDD
    • 1.3.5 HSDPA and beyond (UMTS FDD)
    • 1.3.6 TD-SCDMA
  • 1.4 Summary Figures
    • 1.4.1 Next generation networks global subscribers 2010
    • 1.4.2 Global subscribers by technology 2010
    • 1.4.3 Global service revenues 2010
    • 1.4.4 Global service revenues by technology 2010
    • 1.4.5 Global device shipments 2010
    • 1.4.6 Global device shipments by technology 2010
    • 1.4.7 Global device revenues 2010
    • 1.4.8 Global device revenues by technology 2010
    • 1.4.9 Global cumulative NGN base station deployments 2010
    • 1.4.10 Global cumulative base station deployments by technology 2010
    • 1.4.11 Global base station revenues 2010
    • 1.4.12 Global base station revenues by technology 2010
  • 1.5 Final Thoughts

Section Two 4G and Next Generation Networks Background, Objectives and Rationale

  • 2.1 4G Definitions
    • 2.1.1 IP network
    • 2.1.2 Data capabilities
    • 2.1.3 Network aggregation
    • 2.1.4 Converged platform
    • 2.1.5 Economic improvements
    • 2.1.6 Open platform
    • 2.1.7 Standard bodies
    • 2.1.8 Definition summary
  • 2.2 Next Generation Network
  • 2.3 4G Migration Paths and Candidates
    • 2.3.1 802.16
    • 2.3.2 802.20
    • 2.3.3 UMTS
    • 2.3.4 NTT DoCoMo
    • 2.3.5 4G-NGN proprietary technologies here today
  • 2.4 4G and NGN Services and Applications
  • 2.5 4G Component Characteristics
  • 2.6 Discussion
    • 2.6.1 New migration plans beyond 3G
    • 2.6.2 Some dissatisfaction with 3G
    • 2.6.3 Alternative means to address short-term capacity shortages
    • 2.6.4 Differentiation in competitive markets
    • 2.6.5 Savings
    • 2.6.6 Too much, too late
    • 2.6.7 Telecommunications, a computing application

Section Three 802.20 Standard

  • 3.1 History of 802.20 Standard
  • 3.2 Design Objectives
  • 3.3 Target Segments
  • 3.4 Target Bands
  • 3.5 Potential Operators
  • 3.6 Participants
  • 3.7 Service Range
  • 3.8 Time Table
  • 3.9 Proposed Features
  • 3.10 Product Form Factor
  • 3.11 Discussion
    • 3.11.1 Market impact
    • 3.11.2 Political considerations
    • 3.11.3 Complement or competitor
    • 3.11.4 Why the market needs another wireless standard
    • 3.11.5 How 802.20 is different from the other wireless standards
    • 3.11.6 Is 802.20 arriving too late?
  • 3.12 Evaluation of 802.20
  • 3.13 802.20 Expectations
    • 3.13.1 Global 802.20 subscribers
    • 3.13.2 Global 802.20 service revenues
    • 3.13.3 Global 802.20 device shipments
    • 3.13.4 Global 802.20 device revenues
    • 3.13.5 Global 802.20 base station deployments
    • 3.13.6 Global 802.20 base station revenues

Section Four 802.16 / WiMAX

  • 4.1 Definition
  • 4.2 802.16 Versions and Work Groups
    • 4.2.1 WirelessMAN-SC
    • 4.2.2 WirelessMAN-SCa
    • 4.2.3 WirelessMAN-OFDM
    • 4.2.4 WirelessMAN-OFDMA
    • 4.2.5 WirelessHUMAN
  • 4.3 802.16 Active Projects
    • 4.3.1 802.16e
    • 4.3.2 802.16f and 802.16g
    • 4.3.3 802.16h
  • 4.4 Participation
  • 4.5 Support Organizations
    • 4.5.1 WiMAX
    • 4.5.2 Cetecom
  • 4.6 Market segments
  • 4.7 Capabilities/Expectations
    • 4.7.1 Bandwidth
    • 4.7.2 Range
    • 4.7.3 Spectral efficiency
    • 4.7.4 Bands
    • 4.7.5 Channel sizes
    • 4.7.6 MAC and services
    • 4.7.7 N-LoS
  • 4.8 Competitive options
    • 4.8.1 Proprietary systems
    • 4.8.2 802.20
    • 4.8.3 802.11
    • 4.8.4 Mobile standards
  • 4.9 Time to Market
    • 4.9.1 Chipsets
    • 4.9.2 Certified Equipment
    • 4.9.3 Deployment and services
  • 4.10 Pricing
    • 4.10.1 CPE
    • 4.10.2 Base Stations
    • 4.10.3 Chipsets
  • 4.11 Product Attributes
    • 4.11.1 Air interface
    • 4.11.2 Duplexing
    • 4.11.3 Bands
  • 4.12 Notes on the BWA Sector
    • 4.12.1 An Early History of Disappointment
    • 4.12.2 Causes
      • 4.12.2.1 Limited capabilities
      • 4.12.2.2 High costs
      • 4.12.2.3 No volumes and standards
      • 4.12.2.4 Over-aggressive expansion
      • 4.12.2.5 Lack of differentiation
      • 4.12.2.6 Lack of marketing efficiencies
      • 4.12.2.7 Lack of network scale
    • 4.12.3 Solutions
      • 4.12.3.1 Technical solutions
      • 4.12.3.2 Business model solutions
      • 4.12.3.3 Alliances with municipalities
      • 4.12.3.4 Mobile and fixed wireless convergence
      • 4.12.3.5 Standards implemented and followed
  • 4.13 Conclusions
    • 4.13.1 A worldwide opportunity
    • 4.13.2 Different carriers, different visions
    • 4.13.3 A push for 802.16e
    • 4.13.4 More than mobility
    • 4.13.5 A comment on expectations
    • 4.13.6 Securing a beachhead
  • 4.14 Figures
    • 4.14.1 Global WiMAX users and service revenues
    • 4.14.2 WiMAX Users: commercial vs. residential
    • 4.14.3 WiMAX users: 802.16d vs. 802.16e
    • 4.14.4 Global WiBro users
    • 4.14.5 Global WiMAX CPE shipments and revenues
    • 4.14.6 Global WiMAX CPE shipments by revision (802.16e, 802.16d)
    • 4.14.7 Global WiMAX base station deployments and revenues

Section Five Next Generation Networks Proprietary and Otherwise

  • 5.1 NGN History
  • 5.2 NGN Prospects
  • 5.3 Solutions
  • 5.3 ArrayComm, Inc.
    • 5.3.1 Background
    • 5.3.2 Products/Technology
    • 5.3.3 Partners
    • 5.3.4 Developments
    • 5.3.5 Strategy
    • 5.3.6 Evaluation
  • 5.4 FLASH-OFDM
    • 5.4.1 Qualcomm acquisition
    • 5.4.2 Background
    • 5.4.3 Products/Technology
    • 5.4.4 Partners
    • 5.4.5 Market developments
    • 5.4.6 Strategy
    • 5.4.7 Conclusion
  • 5.5 Navini Networks
    • 5.5.1 Background
    • 5.5.2 Products/Technology
    • 5.5.3 Partners
    • 5.5.4 Developments
    • 5.5.5 Strategy
    • 5.5.6 Conclusion
  • 5.6 NGN Conclusion
  • 5.7 Figures
    • 5.7.1 Global subscribers by NGN vendors
    • 5.7.2 Proprietary tech NGN global service revenues
    • 5.7.3 Proprietary tech NGN global client terminal shipments
    • 5.7.4 Proprietary tech NGN global terminal revenues
    • 5.7.5 Proprietary tech NGN global base stations deployments
    • 5.7.6 Proprietary tech NGN global base station revenues
    • 5.7.7 FLASH-OFDM/802.20 global subscribers
    • 5.7.8 FLASH-OFDM global service revenues
    • 5.7.9 FLASH-OFDM global subscriber terminal shipments
    • 5.7.10 FLASH-OFDM global subscriber terminal revenues
    • 5.7.11 FLASH-OFDM global base station deployments
    • 5.7.12 FLASH-OFDM global base station revenues

Section Six UMTS HSDPA and Beyond (HSUPA, Super 3G)

  • 6.1 No Standing Still
  • 6.2 Capabilities
  • 6.3 Modifications
  • 6.4 Upgrade Path
  • 6.5 Vendor Support
  • 6.6 Terminals: When and Where
  • 6.7 Operators
  • 6.8 Timing
  • 6.9 Drivers
  • 6.10 HSUPA
  • 6.11 Super 3G -- UTRAN LTE
  • 6.12 Discussion
    • 6.12.1 Willing HSDPA participants
    • 6.12.2 Audience is large
    • 6.12.3 Global role
    • 6.12.4 Limitations
    • 6.12.5 HSDPA adds value to UMTS
    • 6.12.6 Real impact
    • 6.12.7 Is Super 3G already too late?
  • 6.13 Forecasts
    • 6.13.1 World WCDMA /HSDPA subscribers
    • 6.13.2 Global WCDMA/HSDPA device shipments
    • 6.13.3 Global WCDMA/HSDPA base station deployments
    • 6.13.4 Global HSDPA subscribers
    • 6.13.5 Global HSDPA service revenues
    • 6.13.6 HSDPA global device shipments
    • 6.13.7 HSDPA global device value
    • 6.13.8 Global HSDPA base station deployments

Section Seven UMTS TDD (TD-CDMA)

  • 7.1 UMTS TDD Background
  • 7.2 Technology
    • 7.2.1 UMTS TDD capacity
    • 7.2.3 UMTS TDD channel Size
    • 7.2.4 UMTS TDD mobility
    • 7.2.5 UMTS TDD core network
    • 7.2.6 UMTS TDD frequency bands
    • 7.2.7 TDD advantages
  • 7.3 Support Base
  • 7.4 UMTS TDD devices
  • 7.5 UMTS TDD deployments
  • 7.6 UMTS TDD trials
  • 7.7 IP Wireless
    • 7.7.1 Background
    • 7.7.2 Products/Technology
  • 7.8 Discussion
    • 7.8.1 Scale
    • 7.8.2 UMTS TDD is a standard
    • 7.8.3 TDD bands in Japan
    • 7.8.4 UMTS TDD availability
    • 7.8.5 UMTS TDD future improvements
  • 7.9 UMTS TDD Evaluation
  • 7.10 Figures
    • 7.10.1 Global UMTS TDD subscribers
    • 7.10.2 Global UMTS TDD service revenues
    • 7.10.3 Subscriber device shipments
    • 7.10.4 Subscriber device value
    • 7.10.5 Global UMTS TDD base station deployments
    • 7.10.6 Global UMTS TDD base station value

Section Eight TD-SCDMA

  • 8.1 Definition
  • 8.2 Timeline
  • 8.3 Licenses
  • 8.4 Spectrum
  • 8.5 Participation
    • 8.5.1 Vendors
    • 8.5.2 Operator assessment
  • 8.6 Capabilities
  • 8.7 Advantages
  • 8.8 Key Technologies
    • 8.8.1 Joint detection
    • 8.8.2 TDD
    • 8.8.3 Smart antennas
  • 8.9 Two TD-SCDMAs
    • 8.9.1 TSM
    • 8.9.2 TDD-LCR
  • 8.10 Competitive outlook
    • 8.10.1 Basic voice (fixed and mobile)
    • 8.10.2 3G
  • 8.11 Discussion
    • 8.11.1 Uncertainty
    • 8.11.2 TD-SCDMA is too late, in part
    • 8.11.3 Opportunities beyond China
    • 8.11.4 The geopolitical view
    • 8.11.5 TD-SCDMA will also evolve
  • 8.12 Conclusions
  • 8.13 Figures
    • 8.13.1 China mobile subscribers
    • 8.13.2 Global TD-SCDMA subscribers
    • 8.13.3 China TD-SCDMA subscribers
    • 8.13.3 Rest of world TD-SCMA subscribers
    • 8.13.4 Global TD-SCDMA service revenues
    • 8.13.5 TD-SCDMA global subscriber device shipments
    • 8.13.6 TD-SCDMA subscriber device revenues
    • 8.13.7 Global TD-SCDMA base station shipments and deployments
    • 8.13.8 Global TD-SCDMA base station shipments revenues

Section Nine NTT DoCoMo (Japan) 4G and NGN Efforts

  • 9.1 Background
  • 9.2 Do it Alone
  • 9.3 Time Frame
  • 9.4 4G Testing Attributes
    • 9.4.1 Air interface
    • 9.4.2 Throughput and bandwidth
    • 9.4.3 Band
    • 9.4.4 Duplexing
    • 9.4.5 Range
    • 9.4.6 Other technologies
  • 9.5 Applications
  • 9.6 Evaluation
  • 9.7 Other Developments in Japan
    • 9.7.1 Vodafone
    • 9.7.2 TDD spectrum

Section Ten NGN and 4G Technologies Components, Elements and Enablers

  • 10.1 Purpose
  • 10.2 Air Interface Definitions
    • 10.2.1 CDMA
    • 10.2.2 TD-SCDMA
    • 10.2.3 WCDMA
    • 10.2.4 OFDM
    • 10.2.5 OFDMA
    • 10.2.6 OFDM with frequency hopping
    • 10.2.7 W-OFDM
    • 10.2.8 TDMA
  • 10.3 Duplexing
    • 10.3.1 TDD
    • 10.3.2 FDD
  • 10.4 Space-Time Processing and Smart Antenna Overview
    • 10.4.1 Smart antennas defined
    • 10.4.2 Space-time processing
    • 10.4.3 Smart antenna terms and technologies
      • 10.4.3.1 Active smart antennas
      • 10.4.3.2 Beam forming
      • 10.4.3.3 Diversity combining
      • 10.4.3.4 Diversity (switched)
      • 10.4.3.5 Maximum ratio combining
      • 10.4.3.6 MIMO
      • 10.4.3.7 Passive smart antennas
      • 10.4.3.8 Polarization diversity
      • 10.4.3.9 Spatial diversity
      • 10.4.3.10 Spatial multiplexing
      • 10.4.3.11 Switched beam
  • 10.5 Other Enablers
    • 10.5.1 Software defined radio
    • 10.5.2 Adaptive modulation
    • 10.5.3 Forward error correction
    • 10.5.4 Fast automatic repeat request
    • 10.5.5 Joint detection
    • 10.5.6 Mesh networking

Forecasts and Figures

Section One

  • Table 1-1 NGN, HSDPA and TD --SCDMA Subscribers, World Market 2004-2010
  • Table 1-2 Subscribers by Technology, HSDPA, TD-SCDMA, 802.20, 802.16 Flash-OFDM, UMTS TDD and Proprietary NGN Systems World Market 2010
  • Table 1-3 HSDPA, TD-SCDMA, 802.20, 802.16, Flash-OFDM, UMTS TDD and Proprietary NGN Systems, Service Revenues, World Market 2004-2010
  • Table 1-4 Service Revenues by Technology, Next Generation Networks World Market 2010
  • Table 1-5 HSDPA, TD-SCDMA, 802.20, 802.16, Flash-OFDM, UMTS TDD and Proprietary NGN Systems, Total Device Shipments, World Market 2004-2010
  • Table 1-6 Device Shipments by Technology, HSDPA, TD-SCDMA, 802.20, 802.16 Flash-OFDM, UMTS TDD and Proprietary NGN Systems World Market 2010
  • Table 1-7 Total Device Revenues, HSDPA, TD-SCDMA, 802.20, 802.16 Flash-OFDM, UMTS TDD and Proprietary NGN Systems World Market 2004-2010
  • Table 1-8 Device Revenues by Technology, HSDPA, TD-SCDMA, 802.20, 802.16 Flash-OFDM, UMTS TDD and Proprietary NGN Systems World Market 2010
  • Table 1-9 Base Stations Deployed, HSDPA, TD-SCDMA, 802.20, 802.16 Flash-OFDM, UMTS TDD and Proprietary NGN Systems World Market 2004-2010
  • Table 1-10 Base Stations Deployed by Technology, HSDPA, TD-SCDMA, 802.20, 802.16, Flash-OFDM, UMTS TDD and Proprietary NGN Systems World Market 2010
  • Table 1-11 Base Station Revenues, TD-SCDMA, 802.20, 802.16, Flash-OFDM, UMTS TDD and Proprietary NGN Systems, World Market 2004-2010
  • Table 1-12 Base Station Revenues by Technology, TD-SCDMA, 802.20, 802.16 Flash-OFDM, UMTS TDD and Proprietary NGN Systems World Market 2010

Section Three

  • Table 3-1 802.20 Subscribers, World Market 2007-2010
  • Table 3-2 802.20 Service Revenues, World Market 2007-2010
  • Table 3-3 802.20 User Device Shipments, World Market 2007-2010
  • Table 3-4 802.20 Device Revenues, World Market 2007-2010
  • Table 3-5 802.20 Base Station Shipments and Deployments, World Market 2007--2010
  • Table 3-6 802.20 Infrastructure Revenues, World Market 2007--2010

Section Four

  • Table 4-1 802.16 Subscribers, World Market 2005-2010
  • Table 4-2 802.16 Service Revenues, World Market 2005-2010
  • Table 4-3 802.16 Subscribers: Residential vs. Commercial Users World Market 2005-2010
  • Table 4-4 802.16 Users by Revision (E or D), World Market 2005-2010
  • Table 4-5 WiBro Subscribers, World Market 2005-2010
  • Table 4-6 802.16 CPE Shipments, World Market 2005-2010
  • Table 4-7 802.16 CPE Revenues, World Market 2005-2010
  • Table 4-8 802.16 Device Shipments by Revision, 802.16d/a vs. 802.16e World Market 2005-2010
  • Table 4-9 802.16 Base Station Shipments and Deployments World Market 2005-2010
  • Table 4-10 802.16 Base Station Revenues, World Market 2005-2010

Section Five

  • Table 5-1 Proprietary Technology NGN Subscribers, World Market 2004-2010
  • Table 5-2 Proprietary Technology NGN Service Revenues, World Market 2004-2010
  • Table 5-3 Proprietary Technology NGN, Device Shipments, World Market 2004-2010
  • Table 5-4 Proprietary Technology NGN Device Revenues, World Market 2004-2010
  • Table 5-5 Proprietary Technology NGN Base Station Shipments and Deployments World Market 2004-2010
  • Table 5-6 Proprietary Technology NGN, Base Station Revenues, World Market 2004-2010
  • Table 5-7 FLASH-OFDM Subscribers, World Market 2005-2010
  • Table 5-8 FLASH-OFDM and 802.20 Subscribers, World Market 2005-2010
  • Table 5-9 FLASH-OFDM Service Revenues, World Market 2005-2010
  • Table 5-10 FLASH-OFDM Device Shipments, World Market 2005-2010
  • Table 5-11 FLASH-OFDM Device Revenues, World Market 2005-2010
  • Table 5-12 FLASH-OFDM Base Station Shipments and Deployments World Market 2005-2010
  • Table 5-13 FLASH-OFDM Base Station Revenues, World Market 2005-2010

Section Six

  • Table 6-1 WCDMA and HSDPA Subscribers, World Market 2004-2010
  • Table 6-2 WCDMA and HSDPA Device Shipments, World Market 2004-2010
  • Table 6-3 WCDMA and HSDPA Base Station Shipments and Deployments World Market 2004-2010
  • Table 6-4 HSDPA Subscribers, World Market 2005-2010
  • Table 6-5 HSDPA Service Revenues, World Market 2005-2010
  • Table 6-6 HSDPA Device Shipments, World Market 2005-2010
  • Table 6-7 HSDPA Device Revenues, World Market 2005-2010
  • Table 6-8 HSDPA Base Station Shipments and Deployments World Market 2005-2010

Section Seven

  • Table 7-1 UMTS TDD Forum Membership, Operators 2005
  • Table 7-2 UMTS TDD Forum Membership, Vendors 2005
  • Table 7-3 UMTS TDD Subscribers, World Market 2004-2010
  • Table 7-4 UMTS TDD Service Revenues, World Market 2004-2010
  • Table 7-5 UMTS TDD Device Shipments, World Market 2004-2010
  • Table 7-6 UMTS TDD Device Revenues, World Market 2004-2010
  • Table 7-7 UMTS TDD Base Station Shipments and Deployments World Market 2004-2010
  • Table 7-8 UMTS TDD Infrastructure Revenues, World Market 2004-2010

Section Eight

  • Table 8-1 Mobile Subscribers, China Market 2004-2010
  • Table 8-2 TD-SCDMA Subscribers, World Market 2006-2011
  • Table 8-3 TD-SCDMA Subscribers by Region and Share of all Subscribers China 2006 2011
  • Table 8-4 TD-SCDMA Subscribers Outside of China, World Market 2008-2013
  • Table 8-5 TD-SCDMA Service Revenues, World Market 2006-2011
  • Table 8-6 TD-SCDMA User Device Shipments, World Market 2006-2011
  • Table 8-7 TD-SCDMA Device Revenues, World Market 2006-2011
  • Table 8-8 TD-SCDMA Base Station Shipments and Deployments World Market 2006--2011
  • Table 8-9 TD-SCDMA Infrastructure Shipment Revenues World Market 2006--2011

Emerging Wireless 2006

Publisher: Visant Strategies

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