WiMAX: 2008 through 2013

SUMMARY

Study Summary

This study is an assessment of WiMAX equipment and service opportunities through 2013 within the mobile and traditional fixed wireless segments. Special attention is placed upon the competitive position of mobile WiMAX verses existing and future 3GPP and 3GPP2 mobile platforms (HSPA , EV-DO, LTE and UMB) and the potential impact 802.16e and 802.16m will have upon the mobile market.

Key trends and challenges to success are considered such as use of femtocells, availability of Wave 2 MIMO equipped devices, fixed vs. mobile services, spectrum availability, and potential for WiMAX within laptops and other devices. Analysis is also provided regarding the impact of mobile carriers' expected roll out of mobile WiMAX deployment.

The role of WiMAX within the traditional DSL/cable modem replacement segment is also carefully studied as this segment constitutes the industry's main revenue source. Also detailed is the expected growth on several traditional WiMAX bands and on new bands utilized for fixed and portable applications.

Mobile and fixed WiMAX base station annual shipments and cumulative deployments are given as are revenues for the yearly shipments with all figures segmented by region. WiMAX subscribers and revenues are quantified and segmented by application and also broken down according to region and radio band.

BWA subscribers and revenues are also given as are shipments and revenues for WiMAX phones, CPE, modems, and chipsets. WiMAX user device shipments and chipsets are segmented according to operating band, and standard revision (802.16e, "802.16d," and 802.16m). Wave 2 devices, chipsets shipments and revenues are also provided. All forecasts are given through 2013.

The study provides two sets of forecasts for all figures with one set assuming a more limited mobile WiMAX deployment.

Topics

• Wave 2 Devices and Technology (MIMO)
• Fixed and Mobile Applications
• Competition from LTE, HSPA, EV-DO, and UMB
• 802.16m, 802.16e, and 802.16d
• Mobile WiMAX deployments
• Embedded WiMAX devices and Laptops
• Technical and Market Challenges to Mobility
• Vendor Market Share
• Regional WiMAX Market Opportunity

Scope of Study

This report has been prepared in order to assess the global opportunity and potential of fixed and mobile WiMAX (Worldwide Interoperability for Microwave Access). In doing so, it analyzes existing wireless technologies and the potential of leading and future technologies on the segment. It considers competitors to WiMAX from both the traditional fixed line and mobile industries and it details the potential for WiMAX to disrupt existing mobile technology migration paths. Sources and Methodology

This report is the result of primary and secondary research. Primary research involved the use of a non-disguised judgment sampling. Interviews were conducted with marketing, engineering, and business development executives from various wireless operators and vendors. Secondary research sources included government agencies, industry associations, company reports, databases, journals, etc. Collected data was then interpreted and presented by an experienced analyst.

Research Methodology

Visant studies are the result of primary and secondary research. Analysts gather information via interviews with marketing and engineering executives and through corporate reports, databases, and other secondary sources. Evaluations are made based on the current performance of various components of a particular technology, including need or expected need, market potential, technology evolution, maturation, price points, and the companies and resources being put towards the development or deployment as well as political considerations, when necessary.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

• Scope of Study
• Sources and Methodology
• Statistical Notes

SECTION ONE

• EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
  • 1.1 Words on the WiMAX Hype, both Positive and Negative
  • 1.2 Application Mix Unchanged
  • 1.3 Fixed Wireless Remains Baseline
  • 1.4 WiMAX and the Role of Pre-Certified Equipment
  • 1.5 Version M Could Hold the Key to Mobility
  • 1.6 Proprietary BWA Phased out
  • 1.7 WiMAX Equipment Sales are Vibrant
  • 1.8 Support Community is Substantial
  • 1.9 Wave 2 802.16e Certification
  • 1.10 Mobile Deployment Looms
  • 1.11 Performance Questions Remain
  • 1.12 Substantial Market Potential Without Mobility
  • 1.13 Early or Late?
  • 1.14 Spectrum Remains in Short Supply
  • 1.15 The Main WiMAX Advantage
  • 1.16 Mobile Opportunities

SECTION TWO

• MOBILE AND FIXED WIMAX
• 802.16-2004, 802.16e-2005 and 802.16m
  • 2.1 802.16 and WiMAX, Background
  • 2.2 Standards and Task Groups of Note
    • 2.2.1 802.16e (802.16e-2005)
    • 2.2.2 802.16d (802.16-2004)
    • 2.2.3 802.16h
    • 2.2.4 Relay Task Group (802.16j)
    • 2.2.5 Task Group M (802.16m)
  • 2.3 WiMAX
    • 2.3.1 Members
    • 2.3.2 WiMAX Forum Role
    • 2.3.3 Certification
    • 2.3.4 Current Certified Product and Timelines
  • 2.4. 802.16 2004, 802.16e-2005 and WiMAX feature set
    • 2.4.1 Channel Sizes
    • 2.4.2 Frequency Allocations
    • 2.4.3 Duplexing.
    • 2.4.4 Modulation
    • 2.4.5 FFT Size
    • 2.4.6 Mobile WiMAX Wave 1 and 2 Profiles, Key Attributes
  • 2.5 Technical Considerations
    • 2.5.1 Data Rates and Spectral Efficiency
    • 2.5.2 WiMAX Performance
      • 2.5.2.1 Summary of Limitations
      • 2.5.2.2 Frequency Reuse, Handoffs, and Mobility
      • 2.5.2.3 Interference Management
      • 2.5.2.4 Uplink (PAPR and TDD)
      • 2.5.2.5 MIMO a Must?
    • 2.5.3 Intelligent Antennas
      • 2.5.3.1 MIMO (Matrix A and B)
      • 2.5.3.2 AAS
      • 2.5.3.3 Assessment
        • 2.5.3.3.1 Established Mobile Carriers
        • 2.5.3.3.2 Greenfield Mobile Carriers
        • 2.5.3.3.3 Fixed/Portable Service Carriers
    • 2.6 Market Considerations
      • 2.6.1 WiMAX Base Station and CPE Product Pricing
      • 2.6.2 Certification Expectations
      • 2.6.3 Interoperability
      • 2.6.4 Proprietary and Competing Solutions
      • 2.6.5 WiMAX Everywhere
      • 2.6.6 Laptop WiMAX
      • 2.6.7 Skipping to Wave 2 Devices
      • 2.6.8 Dual Mode Cellular/WiMAX Devices
      • 2.6.9 WiMAX vs. CDMA/WCDMA
      • 2.6.10 WiBro
      • 2.6.11 WiMAX as a Hot Spot Solution
    • 2.7 Conclusions
    • 2.8 Forecasts
      • 2.8.1 WiMAX Fixed and Mobile Subscribers and Subscriber Revenues
      • 2.8.2 Fixed Wireless Subscribers, All Technologies
      • 2.8.3 WiMAX Subscribers, Mobile Applications
      • 2.8.4 Sprint and Clearwire WiMAX Subscribers
      • 2.8.5 WiMAX Subscribers by Region
      • 2.8.6 WiMAX Subscribers by Operating Frequency
      • 2.8.7 WiMAX Femtocell Users
      • 2.8.8 WiMAX Device Shipments, Phone, CPEs and Modems
      • 2.8.9 WiMAX Phone Shipments
      • 2.8.10 WiMAX CPE, and Modem Device Shipments
      • 2.8.11 WiMAX Device Shipments by Operating Frequency
      • 2.8.12 WiMAX Equipped Laptop Shipments
      • 2.8.13 WiMAX Device Shipments by Revision (D, E, and M)
      • 2.8.14 Wave 2 WiMAX Device Shipments
      • 2.8.15 WiMAX Femtocell Shipments and Revenues
      • 2.8.16 WiMAX Base Station Shipments, Deployments and Revenues
      • 2.8.17 WiMAX Equipment Revenues (Radio and Network Components)
      • 2.8.18 Total WiMAX Equipment Revenues
      • 2.8.19 WiMAX Equipment Revenues by Region
      • 2.8.20 WiMAX Equipment Revenues by Application (Fixed/Portable vs. Mobile)
      • 2.8.21 WiMAX Chipset Shipments and Revenues
      • 2.8.22 WiMAX Chipset Shipments and Revenues by Standard (D, E, and M)
      • 2.8.23 Wave 2 Chipset Shipments and Revenues
      • 2.8.24 WiMAX System Vendor Market Share

TABLES

• Table 2-1
  • WiMAX Total Subscribers (Fixed, Portable and Mobile) and Subscriber
  • Revenues
  • World Market 2006-2013
• Table 2-1 B
  • WiMAX Total Subscribers (Fixed, Portable and Mobile) and Subscriber
  • Revenues
  • Scenario B
  • World Market 2006-2013
• Table 2-2
  • Fixed WiMAX Subscribers and Subscriber Revenues
  • World Market 2006-2013
• Table 2-3
  • Fixed/Portable WiMAX Subscribers and Subscriber Revenues
  • All Technologies
  • World Market 2006-2013
• Table 2-4
  • Mobile WiMAX Subscribers and Subscriber Revenues
  • World Market 2006-2013
• Table 2-4 B
  • Mobile WiMAX Subscribers and Subscriber Revenues
  • Scenario B
  • World Market 2006-2013
• Table 2-5
  • Xohm and Clearwire WiMAX Subscribers
  • US Market 2006-2013
• Table 2-5 B
  • Xohm and Clearwire WiMAX Subscribers
  • Scenario B
  • US Market 2006-2013
• Table 2-6
  • WiMAX Subscribers by Region
  • World Market 2006-2013
• Table 2-6 B
  • WiMAX Subscribers by Region
  • Scenario B
  • World Market 2006-2013
• Table 2-7
  • WiMAX Subscribers by Frequency Band
  • 2.5 GHz-2.8 GHz; 3.4 GHz - 3.8 GHz; 5 GHz - 6 GHz, and Other
  • Frequencies
  • World Market 2006-2013
• Table 2-7 B
  • WiMAX Subscribers by Frequency Band
  • 2.5 GHz-2.8 GHz; 3.4 GHz - 3.8 GHz; 5 GHz - 6 GHz, and Other
  • Frequencies
  • Scenario B
  • World Market 2006-2013
• Table 2-8
  • WiMAX Femtocell Subscribers and Subscriber Revenues
  • World Market 2006-2013
• Table 2-8 B
  • WiMAX Femtocell Subscribers and Subscriber Revenues
  • Scenario B
  • World Market 2006-2013
• Table 2-9
  • WiMAX Device Shipments and Revenues
  • World Market 2006-2013
• Table 2-9 B
  • WiMAX Device Shipments and Revenues
  • Scenario B
  • World Market 2006-2013
• Table 2-10
  • WiMAX Phone Shipments and Revenues
  • World Market 2006-2013
• Table 2-10 B
  • WiMAX Phone Shipments and Revenues
  • Scenario B
  • World Market 2006-2013
• Table 2-11
  • WiMAX Modem and CPE Shipments and Revenues
  • World Market 2006-2013
• Table 2-11 B
  • WiMAX Modem and CPE Shipments and Revenues
  • Scenario B
  • World Market 2006-2013
• Table 2-12
  • WiMAX Device Shipments by Operating Frequency
  • 2.5 GHz - 2.8 GHz; 3.4 GHZ - 3.8 GHz; 5 GHz - 6 GHz and Other
  • Frequencies
  • World Market 2006-2013
• Table 2-12 B
  • WiMAX Device Shipments by Operating Frequency
  • 2.5 GHz - 2.8 GHz; 3.4 GHZ - 3.8 GHz; 5 GHz - 6 GHz and Other
  • Frequencies
  • Scenario B
  • World Market 2006-2013
• Table 2-13
  • WiMAX Laptops Shipments by 802.16 Revision
  • 802.16e - 2005; 802.16 -2004; 802.16m
  • World Market 2006-2013
• Table 2-13 B
  • WiMAX Laptops Shipments by 802.16 Revision
  • 802.16e - 2005; 802.16 -2004; 802.16m
  • Scenario B
  • World Market 2006-2013
• Table 2-14
  • WiMAX Device Shipments (Laptops, Phones, CPE, and Modems)
  • World Market 2006-2013
• Table 2-14 B
  • WiMAX Device Shipments (Laptops, Phones, CPE, and Modems)
  • Scenario B
  • World Market 2006-2013
• Table 2-15
  • WiMAX Wave 2 Device Shipments and Revenues
  • Laptops and Phones/CPE/Modems
  • World Market 2006-2013
• Table 2-15 B
  • WiMAX Wave 2 Device Shipments and Revenues
  • Laptops and Phones/CPE/Modems
  • Scenario B
  • World Market 2006-2013
• Table 2-16
  • WiMAX Femtocell Shipments and Revenues
  • World Market 2006-2013
• Table 2-16 B
  • WiMAX Femtocell Shipments and Revenues
  • Scenario B
  • World Market 2006-2013
• Table 2-17
  • WiMAX Base Station Shipments, Cumulative Deployments and
  • Shipment Revenues
  • World Market 2006-2013
• Table 2-17 B
  • WiMAX Base Station Shipments, Cumulative Deployments and
  • Shipment Revenues
  • Scenario B
  • World Market 2006-2013
• Table 2-18
  • WiMAX Infrastructure
  • Core Network and Radio Revenues
  • World Market 2006-2013
• Table 2-18 B
  • WiMAX Infrastructure
  • Core Network and Radio Revenues
  • Scenario B
  • World Market 2006-2013
• Table 2-19
  • WiMAX User Devices
  • and Network Equipment Revenues
  • World Market 2006-2013
• Table 2-19 B
  • WiMAX User Devices
  • and Network Equipment Revenues
  • Scenario B
  • World Market 2006-2013
• Table 2-20
  • WiMAX User Devices
  • and Network Equipment Revenues
  • by Region 2006-2013
• Table 2-20 B
  • WiMAX User Devices
  • and Network Equipment Revenues
  • Scenario B
  • by Region 2006-2013
• Table 2-21
  • WiMAX User Devices
  • and Network Equipment Revenues
  • by Application
  • Fixed/Portable and Mobile
  • World Market 2006-2013
• Table 2-21 B
  • WiMAX User Devices
  • and Network Equipment Revenues
  • by Application
  • Fixed/Portable and Mobile
  • Scenario B
  • World Market 2006-2013
• Table 2-22
  • WiMAX Chipset Shipments and Revenues
  • for User Devices and Network Infrastructure
  • World Market 2006-2013
• Table 2-22 B
  • WiMAX Chipset Shipments and Revenues
  • for User Devices and Network Infrastructure
  • Scenario B
  • World Market 2006-2013
• Table 2-23
  • WiMAX Chipset Shipments and Revenues
  • for Phones, CPEs and Modems
  • (Laptops Excluded)
  • World Market 2006-2013
• Table 2-23 B
  • WiMAX Chipset Shipments and Revenues
  • for Phones, CPEs and Modems
  • (Laptops Excluded)
  • Scenario B
  • World Market 2006-2013
• Table 2-24
  • WiMAX Chipset Shipments by Standard
  • 802.16-2004, 802.16e-2005 and 802.16m
  • World Market 2006-2013
• Table 2-24 B
  • WiMAX Chipset Shipments by Standard
  • 802.16-2004, 802.16e-2005 and 802.16m
  • Scenario B
  • World Market 2006-2013
• Table 2-25
  • WiMAX Chipset Revenues by Standard
  • 802.16-2004, 802.16e-2005, 802.16m
  • World Market 2006-2013
• Table 2-25 B
  • WiMAX Chipset Revenues by Standard
  • 802.16-2004, 802.16e-2005, 802.16m
  • Scenario B
  • World Market 2006-2013
• Table 2-26
  • WiMAX Wave 2 Chipset Shipments and Revenues
  • World Market 2006-2013
• Table 2-26 B
  • WiMAX Wave 2 Chipset Shipments and Revenues
  • Scenario B
  • World Market 2006-2013
• Table 2-27
  • WiMAX Vendor Revenues and Market Share
  • World Market 2007